The German Frauenhofer Institute expects battery capacity to double til 2030

Tesla

The well famous German Frauenhofer Institute published this 36 page long detailed report about the current status and future development of the battery production in Europe. Here is the google translated text of their main findings:

The technological maturity of batteries for e-cars and their usefulness is still questioned by critics today, although electromobility has been advancing for a long time. Since the beginning of 2020, there have been over 7.5 million electric cars on the roads worldwide, and their share of global car sales is estimated to be 25-75% from 2030, depending on the market study. This has a major impact on the global demand for and capacity of lithium-ion batteries, which is expected to increase from 500-1,500 GWh (around 2025) to 1,000-6,000 GWh (after 2030).

Battery cells made in Europe
Nearly 600 GWh of cell production capacity has been announced in Europe by 2030 – half of which is to be built in Germany. This corresponds to an average of 20% of global battery cell demand, which would, for example, meet the expected demand from European automobile manufacturers.
Against the background of the decisive market ramp-up phase between 2020 and 2030, the Fraunhofer ISI’s fact check provides an overview of controversial issues along the battery value chain and formulates the need for action in this period. For this purpose, the authors analyzed external and in-house studies in a meta-literature analysis in order to answer 12 key questions such as these:

How do batteries develop and what ranges can be expected?
In the past ten years, the energy density of large-format LIB battery cells used in e-cars has almost doubled and could double again by 2030. In order to achieve real ranges of over 600 kilometers, in addition to the further development of the LIB cells, space and weight-saving innovations and strategies down to the battery system level and in the vehicle are required. The acceptance and demand by e-car buyers will continue to improve with the range, as well as with the increasing cost-effectiveness and parallel charging infrastructure that will emerge in the coming decade.

Is the environmental footprint of electric cars better than that of conventional cars?
The carbon footprint of current electric cars is significantly better than conventional cars over the entire service life. If even more renewable energy sources are used in battery production and driving in the future, this will further improve the environmental balance. But like all cars, e-cars also have negative ecological effects, which have to be reduced further, among other things due to changes in mobility behavior.

Does electromobility lead to job losses?
Overall, many studies point to a decline in employment in the automotive and supplier industries. The job effects in battery cell production itself are limited, but the job effects resulting from the upstream and downstream value chains are relevant – and the location of cell manufacturers is therefore extremely important. However, the job losses in the automotive and supplier industry also face job gains in other areas such as electricity production and
-distribution or the establishment of a charging infrastructure. Regions and companies particularly affected by structural change may need to be supported by active industrial and labor market policy measures so that – together with natural age fluctuation – the structural change can be made socially acceptable.